‘Preserve this year’s stocks’: 1.25 million Zambians face hunger in the lean season as the Government activates its El Niño plan — but the Vice-President says the lights stay on

Friday's business in the National Assembly was dominated by the weather. In two ministerial statements on Friday 23 October, Vice-President Mutale Nalumango and the Minister of Green Economy and Environment, Dr Gilbert Siame, told MPs what the Government expects from the 2026/27 rainy season and what it has done so far to prepare. Zambia Monitor, the Zambia Daily Mail and News Diggers all reported from the House.

According to Zambia Monitor's account of the Vice-President's statement, the Government has activated a coordinated national preparedness plan in response to early warnings of below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells and possible drought. The scale of the risk comes from the 2026 Zambia Vulnerability and Needs Assessment Report: about 1.25 million people, or 7 per cent of the population analysed, could face acute food insecurity between August 2026 and March 2027, spread across 93 districts. Nalumango said K31.7 million has already been disbursed through the Disaster Risk Management Division to prioritised districts in nine provinces — Eastern, Southern, Western, Central, Northern, North-Western, Muchinga, Lusaka and Luapula — and that provincial authorities, rather than Lusaka, bought and distributed the relief food to save on transport costs.

I urge all Honourable Members to encourage their constituents to preserve this year's stocks
— Vice-President Mutale Nalumango, ministerial statement to the National Assembly, Friday 23 October, as reported by Zambia Monitor

Where the rain is least likely to fall

Dr Siame's statement, reported by Zambia Monitor and in part by News Diggers, gave the meteorology behind the plan. The season is developing under El Niño conditions reinforced by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which, in his words, "tilt the odds firmly towards a drier and hotter than normal season". The national seasonal forecast launched on 11 September divides the country into three belts. The southern belt of Southern and Western provinces is the area of greatest concern, with below-normal rainfall and a delayed onset expected; the minister named Sinazongwe, Gwembe, Siavonga, Choma, Kazungula, Livingstone, Senanga, Shang'ombo, Sesheke and Kalabo as the districts likely to be driest. A central transition zone covering Copperbelt, Central and Eastern provinces faces variable rain and a higher risk of prolonged dry spells, while the northern belt — Northern, Muchinga, Luapula and North-Western — can expect normal to above-normal rainfall. Flash floods remain possible in the Barotse Plains and in built-up areas such as Lusaka, and temperatures are expected to be above normal almost everywhere.

Siame also announced a US$3.6 million grant from the Systematic Observation Financing Facility to bring Zambia's automatic weather and rainfall stations up to World Meteorological Organization standards, a World Bank-financed national lightning-detection network, and a digital climate advisory service in Bemba, Nyanja, Tonga and English intended to reach more than one million farmers this season and four million by 2029. Cabinet has approved a National Policy on Meteorology, and a Meteorological Services Bill creating a Zambia Meteorological Authority and a Weather and Climate Fund is to be tabled by the end of the year. News Diggers quotes him telling the House that "in Zambia, rainfall is more than weather".

What happens to the power supply

The question many will ask after the 2023/24 drought, whose lessons the Vice-President invoked, is whether the dams will hold. In Vice-President's Question Time on the same day, reported by the Zambia Daily Mail, Nalumango said Zambia has enough electricity to avoid a return to load-shedding and attributed isolated outages in some areas to routine maintenance. That assurance sits alongside a decision taken earlier this month: Zambia Monitor reported on 15 October that the Zambezi River Authority has cut the 2027 water allocation for power generation at Kariba from 36 billion cubic metres this year to 23 billion, split equally between ZESCO and Zimbabwe Power Company, and projected that usable water in the lake would fall to 5.83 billion cubic metres, about 9 per cent of live storage, by the end of 2027. The authority noted that the lake stood at 480.65 metres on 14 October, up from 477.34 metres a year earlier.

Nalumango told MPs that disaster-management clusters bringing in line ministries, UN agencies, cooperating partners, churches and civil society have been activated and have produced a 2026/27 El Niño Preparedness and Response Plan covering drought and floods, disease control in people and animals, safe water and sanitation, and the use of strategic grain reserves and market measures to keep staple food available. The Division and its partners are finalising a plan for additional relief food or cash through the lean period. She asked MPs to share the forecast in their constituencies, to encourage farmers to follow advice from the Zambia Meteorological Department and extension officers, and to support the Meteorological Services Bill when it comes to the House.

Sources: Zambia Monitor, “Govt activates El Niño action plan as 1.25m people face food insecurity risk” (24 Oct 2026); Zambia Monitor, “Zambia secures $3.6 million grant to modernise weather monitoring systems” (24 Oct 2026); Zambia Daily Mail, “Power stays on” (24 Oct 2026); News Diggers, “Prepare for late rains, higher temperatures, Govt warns” (24 Oct 2026); Zambia Monitor, “Fears over hydropower generation in 2027 as River Authority cuts Kariba water allocation to 23bn cubic meters” (15 Oct 2026).