Zambia's plan to more than quintuple its generating capacity by mid-century comes with a price tag, and a warning about who pays it. Zambia Monitor reported on Wednesday 28 October that the Ministry of Energy's presentation on the financing strategy for the Integrated Resource Plan, delivered at a stakeholder meeting convened by the Centre for Trade Policy and Development at the Radisson Blu in Lusaka, puts the plan's total financing need at about US$31 billion by 2050, of which US$11.6 billion is needed by 2030. That is roughly US$1.07 billion a year, which the presentation says current financing cannot cover: bilateral and multilateral development banks have provided nearly half of the sector's funding, at an average of US$231 million a year.
The plan's targets are large. The presentation gives current capacity as 3,877 MW, rising to 10,013 MW by 2030 and 23,193 MW by 2050, with variable renewables, mainly solar and wind, growing from 7.9 per cent of installed capacity now to 33 per cent by 2030 and 56 per cent by 2050. Large hydro is 79.6 per cent of today's capacity, which the presentation identifies as the system's vulnerability to drought, as recent droughts have shown.
Two market models, one gap
The strategy compares two ways of running the electricity market to 2050: the single-buyer model, in which ZESCO buys all power and sells it on, and an open-access model, in which generators and large customers can trade directly over ZESCO's wires. Under open access, Zambia Monitor reports, ZESCO could face a financing gap of up to US$23.1 billion between 2033 and 2050. The article does not give the single-buyer result, any tariff path or the utility's debt position, and it quotes no ZESCO or government official, so how the ministry proposes to close the gap, through tariffs, concessional debt, private capital or asset sales, is not reported.
A different capacity number
On Tuesday, at a policy dialogue on the Population and Energy Nexus Study 2026, Energy Permanent Secretary Arnold Simwaba said installed national generation capacity now stands at 4,722 MW, up from 3,777 MW in 2024, News Diggers reported. He credited the reform programme pursued since 2021 with improving the investment climate, bringing in private generators and expanding generation, transmission and access. The two official figures, 3,877 MW in the IRP presentation and 4,722 MW from the Permanent Secretary, are not reconciled in either report; the difference may reflect the IRP's base year or what each counts as installed and available, and this edition has not been able to establish which.
The strategy arrives with new political owners. Zambia Monitor's list of the ministers sworn in on Wednesday 28 October has Peter Kapala as Minister of Electricity and Makozo Chikote as Minister of Petroleum, the two halves of the old Energy portfolio under the 30-ministry structure. The IRP's financing question is now theirs to answer, and the 2027 budget on 6 November is the first place they will have to.
Sources: Zambia Monitor, “ZESCO faces potential $23.1bn financing gap under power sector reforms —Report” (28 Oct 2026); News Diggers, “Zambia's installed power generation capacity now at 4,722MW – Govt” (29 Oct 2026); Zambia Monitor, “'Zambia, here are your ministers,' Hichilema unveils new cabinet, portfolios (See list)” (28 Oct 2026).