The second rise in as many months arrived on a Saturday. In a statement issued on 31 October, the Energy Regulation Board said that from midnight the pump price of petrol would be K33.06 a litre, up K1.60 from K31.46, and diesel K34.45, up K1.18 from K33.27. News Diggers and the Zambian Observer both carried the figures; Zambia Monitor reported the same diesel price and put kerosene at K32.08 and Jet A-1 at K34.51. The board's October statement, still on its website, listed kerosene at K29.76 and Jet A-1 at K31.85, so both have risen by more than K2.
The reasons given by ERB board chairperson James Banda were the usual two. International oil prices, he said, trended upward through the review period on what the board called sustained geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the kwacha weakened against the US dollar, depreciating by more than 3 per cent. The combined effect, the statement said, was the main factor in the November prices. The Zambian Observer and Zambia Monitor reproduced the board's benchmark figures: the average international price of petrol rose to US$125.84 a barrel from US$121.58, and kerosene and Jet A-1 to US$153.22 from US$144.00. Diesel, by contrast, fell to US$154.71 from US$160.88, which means the diesel increase at the pump rests on the exchange rate alone. None of the reports gave the exchange rate the board used.
The October step, and the one still to come
November's increase is modest beside October's. The board's statement of 30 September, still published on the ERB website, raised petrol by K6.17 and diesel by K6.41 in a single review, because the government's tax relief on fuel expired in September and excise duty returned from 1 October. That statement put the kwacha at K19.76 to the dollar, from K19.28 the month before, a fall of about 2.5 per cent. It also recorded a date that has not changed: the zero-rating of VAT on fuel ends on 1 December 2026. If nothing else moves, the December review will have to absorb that too.
The new prices came a day after the Vice-President was asked in Parliament whether the Treasury could do something about them. During Friday's Vice-President's Question Time, Getrude Imenda asked whether part of the country's reserves could be used to cushion fuel. Mutale Nalumango said no. The reserves, which she put at US$6.5 billion, were a national security resource that should not be used carelessly, she said; the government had already given up duty revenue on fuel, which amounted to the same thing, and the budget, through free education, social cash transfers, farm inputs and cash-for-work, was where the cost of living was addressed. Kalemba's account of the exchange, carried by the Zambian Observer, and News Diggers' report of the same sitting agree on the substance. She also argued that Zambia's prices compared well with the region and that neighbouring countries buy fuel here.
Fuel prices are high, we agree.
— Mutale Nalumango, Vice-President, during the Vice-President's Question Time in the National Assembly on Friday 30 October, as reported by Kalemba and carried by the Zambian Observer
The budget takes care of the cost of living. We can't get reserves for fuel.
— Mutale Nalumango, the same sitting, as reported by Kalemba and carried by the Zambian Observer
What the central bank sees
The exchange rate that drove the diesel increase is the same one the Bank of Zambia's Financial Stability Committee discussed at its October meeting. Zambia Monitor reported on Saturday that the committee kept the countercyclical capital buffer at zero but said near-term risks had risen since April, naming prolonged geopolitical tensions and the higher energy and fertiliser prices they bring, tighter global financial conditions and the El Niño drought that is expected this season. On the other side of the ledger, the committee said government securities yields had fallen, liquidity had improved and the kwacha's volatility had declined, and that banks would stay above the 10 per cent capital requirement even under a severe drought scenario. The statement itself had not appeared on the bank's website by Sunday; the account here is Zambia Monitor's.
The November prices, per litre
- Petrol — K33.06, from K31.46 (+K1.60)
- Diesel — K34.45, from K33.27 (+K1.18)
- Kerosene — K32.08, from K29.76 in the ERB's October statement
- Jet A-1 — K34.51, from K31.85 in the ERB's October statement
- Effective from midnight, Saturday 31 October, until the next monthly review
- 1 December 2026 — VAT zero-rating on fuel ends, per the ERB's October statement
Confirmed vs. alleged
Confirmed: The ERB's November prices for petrol and diesel, the kwacha and oil-price reasons the board gave and the effective date are reported consistently by News Diggers, the Zambian Observer and Zambia Monitor; the kerosene and Jet A-1 prices come from the Observer and Zambia Monitor. The October increases, the September exchange rate and the 1 December VAT date are in the ERB's own October statement. The Vice-President's remarks on reserves are reported by Kalemba (via the Zambian Observer) and News Diggers.
Alleged or unverified: Zambia Monitor's report gives petrol as K33.60 and a K2.14 increase; the K33.06 figure used here is the one News Diggers and the Zambian Observer report and is consistent with the K1.60 rise both describe. The exchange rate the board used, and the detailed price build-ups, were not in any report read for this story; the board said they are on its website. The Bank of Zambia committee statement is reported by Zambia Monitor alone.
Sources: News Diggers, “ERB hikes fuel prices” (31 Oct 2026); Zambian Observer, “FUEL PRICES INCREASED: PETROL from 31.46 to 33.06 DIESEL from 33.27 to 34.45” (31 Oct 2026); Zambia Monitor, “Zambia hikes November petrol, diesel prices” (31 Oct 2026); Energy Regulation Board, “Review of Petroleum Pump Prices for October 2026 (press statement, 30 September 2026)” (30 Sep 2026); Zambian Observer, “We can't use reserves on fuel right now, we are doing better than other countries – Nalumango” (31 Oct 2026); News Diggers, “We can even declare 2031 won if opposition is not disciplined – Veep” (31 Oct 2026); Zambia Monitor, “BoZ maintains countercyclical capital buffer at zero despite rising financial stability risks” (31 Oct 2026).