Thirty-six hours and no word: the fuel-tax waiver enters its final day-and-a-half, and the October price review waits on a signature

By breakfast on Tuesday, the position had not changed: the temporary suspension of excise duty and the zero-rating of VAT on petrol and diesel — Statutory Instruments No. 56 and No. 61 of 2026 — lapse at midnight on Wednesday, 30 September, and the government has said nothing. Officials conceded at the weekend that no decision had been taken. If that remains true tonight, the decision will have been taken by default.

The arithmetic waiting on the other side of midnight is known to the ngwee. September's Energy Regulation Board review held the national uniform pump price at K25.29 for petrol, K26.86 for diesel, K27.02 for kerosene and K28.71 for Jet A-1, and said the stability was partly bought by the tax measures and the board's price-smoothing mechanism. At K26.86, Zambian diesel remains the cheapest of the six SADC pump prices tracked regionally — roughly a fifth below South Africa's inland benchmark. Restoring the excise and VAT lines to the October build-up would hand the smoothing mechanism a third shock to absorb alongside oil and the kwacha. It has never carried all three at once.

The regulator's calendar compresses the drama into hours. The ERB announces monthly reviews in the final days of the month, with new prices effective at midnight on the first — meaning the October calculation is being assembled this week, while the waiver's fate is formally undecided. The October statement, whenever it lands, answers two questions at once: what the regulator thinks fuel costs, and what the Treasury thinks it can afford to forgive.

The Treasury's books argue both ways. The relief costs roughly $200 million a quarter in forgone revenue, and the Cabinet-approved Green Paper for the 2027–2029 budget — published Saturday — commits the government to broadening the tax base and rationalising exemptions, a description that fits a fuel-tax holiday with uncomfortable precision. Against the books stands the pump's place in the price chain: inflation eased to 6.1 per cent in September, inside the Bank of Zambia's band, and the IMF already projects it drifting back to 8.5 per cent by year's end partly on fuel. Energy expert Joshua Jere made the industry's case plainly this month: extend the waiver, because the global oil market has not calmed. The kwacha, steady near K19.5 to the dollar, is the one line in the build-up currently pulling in the consumer's favour.

There is precedent for the eleventh hour — the July extension was gazetted at the edge of expiry. But a government that announces extensions at midnight also announces, by the same act, that it waits until midnight. The gazette is where this shows up first. Watch it tonight, and tomorrow.

Sources: Radio Phoenix, "Govt yet to decide on extension of fuel tax waivers" (26 Sep 2026); CNBC Africa/Reuters on the July extension and SIs 56 & 61 of 2026 (Jul 2026); ERB September 2026 pump-price statement (31 Aug 2026); ZNBC on Joshua Jere's call (Sep 2026); ZamStats CPI bulletin (Sep 2026); IMF staff statement (May 2026); Mwebantu/Zambia Monitor on the Green Paper (26 Sep 2026).