Tear up the monthly calendar: the President wants fuel priced in seasons, not weeks — and ADNOC wants to be in the room

The second day of the new fuel prices passed without a queue and without a reversal — and with the first serious signal that the machinery which produced them may itself be rebuilt. President Hichilema told a delegation led by Ahmed Bin Thalith, chief executive of ADNOC Global Trading, in Abu Dhabi this week that monthly fuel price changes are no longer working for Zambia, creating uncertainty for businesses and households and complicating the management of the economy. "We discussed how best to stabilise fuel prices and move away from monthly price adjustments," the President said afterwards. The government, he indicated, is considering pricing windows of two or three months.

The numbers that provoked the rethink are now two days old: petrol at K31.46 and diesel at K33.27 a litre, up K6.17 and K6.41 — about 24 per cent each — from midnight on 30 September, with kerosene at K29.76 and Jet A-1 at K31.85. The Energy Regulation Board attributed the jump to higher international prices — the average petrol price rose from US$104.94 to US$121.58 a barrel over the review period — a kwacha that slipped from K19.28 to K19.76 to the dollar, and the return of excise duty after six months of relief. VAT on petroleum products, zero-rated since April, returns on 1 December.

The case for a longer window has been building in Lusaka for weeks. Energy expert Bornface Zulu argued in the Zambian Business Times last week that monthly adjustments expose consumers to frequent, unpredictable increases, and called for a return to quarterly reviews. The President's framing in Abu Dhabi — "We may not control every factor that drives fuel prices, but we can make our pricing mechanism more predictable and business-friendly" — is the first time the proposal has carried his imprimatur. What it would mean for the ERB's independence, and for under-recoveries when world prices move against a fixed window, is the analysis the ministry now owes the country.

ADNOC's interest is the other half of the story. Mr Bin Thalith said more investment in Zambia's fuel infrastructure could secure the country's domestic demand and create a surplus to supply neighbouring states, citing the company's record of honouring contracts in East Africa and its earlier experience of supplying Zambia in difficult periods. ADNOC, he said, wants a long-term partnership rather than month-to-month arrangements, and is exploring ways to support local firms such as Indeni in managing and expanding the country's petroleum terminals. Supply security and price stability are, in this framing, the same contract written twice.

For the commuter, none of this changes Saturday's fare. The 24-per-cent arithmetic this newspaper laid out on Friday stands until the next review — whenever, and under whatever calendar, that review now comes. But the direction of travel is set: a government that spent six months holding prices down with tax relief now wants to hold them still with the calendar itself. December's VAT return will be the first test of how much stillness the budget can afford.

Sources: Lusaka Times, "Petrol Hits K31.46, Diesel K33.27 As Tax Relief Ends, While Hichilema Pushes To Scrap Monthly Price Changes" (1 Oct 2026); Zambian Economist, "Zambia Fuel Prices October 2026: Petrol K31.46, Diesel K33.27" (2 Oct 2026); Zambian Business Times, "Should ERB revert to quarterly fuel price reviews as HH begins second term?" (29 Sep 2026); Energy Regulation Board price announcement (30 Sep 2026); Lusaka Brief, "Day one at K31.46" (2 Oct 2026).