Zambia's inflation rate has eased to 9.2%, with stabilising food prices doing most of the work, according to the latest figures reported this week. It continues one of the strongest disinflation runs in the region: from above 23% at the worst of the cost-of-living crisis to the edge of single digits.
The drivers are consistent with the story of the year: a firmer kwacha cutting import costs, a record maize harvest holding down grain and mealie meal prices, and fuel prices that have been held steady through the ERB's smoothing mechanism.
The footnote
Inflation easing means prices are rising more slowly — not that they are falling. The price level built up over the crisis years is still sitting in every household budget, which is why "inflation is down" and "life is still expensive" are both true at the same market stall.
The disinflation run
- ~23% at the peak of the cost-of-living crisis
- 6.5% cited earlier in the year as the low point
- 9.2% the latest reading, food-led stabilisation
- Next test: whether single digits hold through the farming season
For the Bank of Zambia, the question is when — not whether — to begin easing policy. For households, the only statistic that matters is the total at the till.
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