Double the demand, stuck at the wires: capacity hits 4,722MW — and the President names the grid as the laggard

The country can now make nearly twice the power it needs — the problem is moving it. President Hakainde Hichilema, in a speech delivered on his behalf by Vice-President Mutale Nalumango at the third Energy Forum for Africa in Lusaka, put the installed generation figure at 4,722.3MW, up from 3,777MW in 2024, against a peak national demand of about 2,400MW, according to Ministry of Energy data. The surplus is the headline; the warning was the substance: "although we have recorded positive gains and investment in the generation space, transmission and distribution space is lagging behind."

The composition of the build-out explains both the achievement and the bottleneck. Solar capacity has jumped from 178MW in 2024 to 1,027.5MW — about 21.76 percent of the installed total, and past the Government's 1,000MW-by-2026 target with months to spare — driven largely by independent producers who can erect a solar farm far faster than a utility can string a high-voltage line. The drought of 2024/25 taught the country what an over-hydro grid costs; the build-out since has been deliberate insurance. But generation without evacuation is inventory: power that exists on paper at the plant gate and never reaches a smelter, a farm or a home.

The President's answer is a call for capital into the unglamorous half of the sector — transmission lines, substations and distribution — plus the regional interconnectors that would let a borderless African power market buy Zambia's surplus. Behind that sit the mega-projects the forum heard about: Batoka Gorge's 2,400MW and Devil's Gorge's 2,380MW on the Zambezi, and a 1,000MW floating solar scheme on Lake Kariba. The context that gives the appeal its edge is the mines: the Treasury's growth story banks on copper output climbing, and every new shaft draws from the same grid. Zambia has spent two years proving it can build generation quickly; the 2031 target of 10,000MW will be decided by whether it can build wires at the same speed.

Sources: Zambia Daily Mail, "Power boom" (8 Oct 2026); Lusaka Times, "Zambia's Power Capacity Hits 4,722MW, Nearly Double Peak Demand, As Hichilema Warns The Grid Is Lagging" (8 Oct 2026); Ministry of Energy demand data as cited; Energy Forum for Africa programme, Lusaka (7–8 Oct 2026).