Every serious conversation about Zambia's copper ambitions ends at the same place: electricity. Industry executives estimate that tripling output to 3 million tonnes by 2031 requires at least 2,000 megawatts of new generation — in a system that ran a deficit of nearly 707 megawatts in 2025.
The structural weakness is hydropower dependence: 81% of installed capacity, brutally exposed when the 2024 drought collapsed dam output and pushed mines onto expensive imported power. Load shedding reached as much as 23 hours a day at the worst of it, according to the World Bank.
The recovery is real
But 2026 is not 2024. Lake Kariba's usable storage stood at 46.46% on 4 August, more than double the 22.96% recorded on the same date last year. ZESCO managing director Justin Loongo has ruled out a return to nationwide load shedding this year, citing improved hydro, thermal and solar output and new partnerships with independent power producers — while cautioning that vandalism and local faults can still cause isolated outages.
"The electricity system is not adjacent to Zambia's minerals strategy — it is the minerals strategy."
Barrick appears to agree: its Lumwana expansion includes a new transmission framework developed with ZESCO alongside the mine itself. The question for term two is whether generation can be built faster than the mines it is meant to feed.
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