Inflation edges up to 6.3 per cent as diesel jumps 24 per cent in a month, and September's trade balance swings to a US$186 million deficit on weaker copper exports

Prices are rising a little faster, and the reason is not food. The Zambia Statistics Agency's monthly bulletin for October, presented in Lusaka on Thursday 29 October by General Statistician Sheila Mudenda, puts annual inflation at 6.3 per cent, up from 6.1 per cent in September and the second consecutive monthly rise, Zambia Monitor and the Maravi Post reported. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation eased to 5.7 per cent from 5.8 per cent, and is far below the 14.1 per cent of a year earlier. Non-food inflation rose to 7.4 per cent from 6.6 per cent. Mudenda attributed the increase in the headline rate mainly to price movements in non-food items.

The bulletin's own tables show where. Month on month, prices rose 0.7 per cent in October, against 0.4 per cent in September; non-food prices alone rose 1.2 per cent in the month. Transport inflation jumped to 10.8 per cent a year from 5.8 per cent, and the bulletin's national average prices record diesel at K33.25 a litre, up 23.8 per cent on the month, and petrol at K31.46, up 24.4 per cent, after October's fuel price increases. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels ran at 7.6 per cent and health at 8.9 per cent. Food, by contrast, kept the headline down: a 25 kg bag of breakfast meal averaged K235.86, 10.2 per cent cheaper than in October 2025, and roller meal K181.99, down 11.8 per cent. A 20-litre tin of maize grain rose 5.2 per cent in the month but is still 11.9 per cent below a year ago.

Lusaka carries the rate

Inflation is highest in Lusaka Province, at 8.6 per cent, up from 8.1 per cent, and Lusaka alone contributes 2.5 of the 6.3 percentage points; the Copperbelt, at 5.5 per cent, contributes 1.2. Rates fell in Eastern (4.6 per cent), Southern (5.4) and Western (5.0) provinces and rose everywhere else, with North-Western climbing from 5.0 to 5.8 per cent. Food contributed 3.4 points of the national figure and non-food 2.9, of which housing and utilities accounted for 0.9 and transport 0.7. The rate remains inside the Bank of Zambia's 6 to 8 per cent target band; the Monetary Policy Committee next meets on 25 and 26 November, Zambia Monitor noted in its currency report this week.

Trade turns negative

The same bulletin carries September's trade figures, and they are weaker. Exports fell 8.1 per cent to US$1,606.4 million while imports rose 5.4 per cent to US$1,792.8 million, so the balance moved from a surplus of US$48.0 million in August to a deficit of US$186.4 million. Refined copper earnings fell 14.9 per cent to US$934.7 million as volumes dropped 15.3 per cent to 64,900 tonnes, even though the LME price edged up to US$14,483 a tonne. Traditional exports were down 10.0 per cent and non-traditional exports 4.2 per cent. On the import side, capital goods rose 33.5 per cent. Over January to September, total trade is US$27.1 billion, 43.4 per cent more than in the same months of 2025, and cumulative refined copper exports are 663,000 tonnes, up 6.3 per cent.

The figures land in a nervous currency market. Zambia Monitor reported on Wednesday that the kwacha closed at K20.30 to the dollar on 27 October, its weakest in twelve months by Access Bank's reckoning and 16.6 per cent down from K17.41 in June, with importers' dollar demand, September's 250-basis-point policy rate cut and the K19.9 billion supplementary budget all cited as pressures. An economist quoted by News Diggers on Thursday, Bright Chizonde, warned that borrowing about K18 billion of that supplementary budget on the domestic market could push up interest rates and crowd out private borrowers. The 2027 budget, which will set out next year's borrowing, is now due on 6 November.

Sources: Zambia Statistics Agency, “The Monthly, Volume 283, October 2026” (29 Oct 2026); Zambia Monitor, “Zambia's annual inflation rate hits 6.3% as country records September trade deficit” (29 Oct 2026); Maravi Post, “Zambia's inflation narrowly up to 6.3% in October” (29 Oct 2026); Zambia Monitor, “Kwacha hits one-year low as demand for dollars outpaces supply” (28 Oct 2026); News Diggers, “Borrowing K18bn locally will push up interest rates, hurt businesses – Economist” (29 Oct 2026).